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Economic Forecast: EU Commission, “Recovery is stabilising”. But “there are headwinds”

Pierre Moscovici, commissario europeo agli affari economici

(Brussels) “Good news” and “tailwinds, which might last longer” with respect to previous months: in Brussels, EU Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici announces that “now economic recovery is stable in Europe”, though EU members “have different rhythms”. Advantages are still coming from low oil price, from the still favourable euro exchange rate, “with respect to the dollar, above all” (positive export element), and from the much expected “recovery of private consumption”. Unemployment is slowly going down, while inflation (price level) is stable. However, “there are still winds against growth”, and Moscovici warns us about them: world economy slowdown, with the special cases of China, Russia, Brazil, Middle East and Sub Saharan Africa; the weight of public debt in a few States; geopolitical instability. Therefore, the “Winter Forecast” of the Commission points out “actually unchanged growth perspectives from autumn; moreover, for external factors, above all, the risk for slower growth (with respect to previous announcements) is increasing”. In the eurozone, “this year, growth should achieve 1.7% with respect to last year’s 1.6%, achieving 1.9% in 2017”. On the other hand, for EU-28, “economic growth is foreseen to be stable (1.9%) this year, achieving 2.0% next year”.

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