After more than five years of civil war, with approximately 400 thousand dead, millions of refugees and displaced persons, a serious humanitarian emergency. Women, old people and children are those who suffer the most. Syria has become a trap for the great powers involved. The US and Russia appear to be stuck in this quagmire, in the quest of an exit strategy to be used as a partial victory, as if to justify a high death toll of civilians and soldiers, victims of their own ambition, yearning to gain geopolitical influence along with a stronger role in the Middle-Eastern area of Iraq and Syria, where other regional players are active, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. An ongoing war with no winners, as in the case of the Battle of Aleppo, and the failed cease-fire, agreed by USA and Russia, which would have at least provided some respite to an exhausted population. In this landscape the European Union is increasingly becoming a spectator, unable to express a common stand, exception made for appeals to dialogue. SIR addressed the issue with general Vincenzo Camporini, until 2011 Chief of the Defence Staff of Italy, presently Vice-President of the Institute for International Affairs in Rome. (IAI).
General, Syria and Aleppo caused a divide between Washington and Moscow. What are the causes and what are the consequences? When it comes to Syria Moscow and Washington have different goals. Moscow must safeguard, at least temporarily, Assad’s position, and the US don’t appreciate this stand. It’s hard to say to what extent the US is pressured by Syrian internal opposition force, and to what extent the US controls that force. In all likelihood, not even those who are active on the ground have an answer to this question.
Is Putin taking advantage of the US’ diplomatic uncertainties owing to the upcoming presidential elections? It is to be expected that until the first months of 2017 US politics will be marked by a very low profile. The outgoing administration no longer has much influence, and clearly Putin feels more in charge of the situation compared to the US State Department.
Russia is taking advantage of the situation to gain political grounds. Unfortunately it’s a structural situation because western democracies have their own electoral pace that strengthens or weakens the position of national leaders. Autocratic regimes don’t have these problems and may take advantage of this.
The battle of Aleppo: many political analysts believe that whoever will conquer the city will determine the outcome of the war… Wars are not football matches. There isn’t a final whistle that determines their end and thus the final result. The situation in Syria has deep geopolitical roots, linked to Assad’s dictatorship, which draw their lifeblood from the external enmity between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Long-lasting peace won’t be ushered in by the outcome of a battle.
I believe that hostilities will last for a long time, also because the suffering of the past years can’t be forgotten overnight.
To what extent do religious motivations influence the conflict – Shiite Iran and Sunni Turkey and Arabia -? The war is not fought on religious grounds. Religions are instrumentally used to foment hostilities between the fighters.
In this scenario the European Union is a spectator… The EU is paying for the fact of never having considered the possibility of a common foreign policy. For this reason it has a weak voice that remains unheard because it lacks the appropriate tools for its implementation. A major effort will be needed to achieve a common foreign policy, which I consider indispensable if we want our civilization to survive.
Our civilization, that of Western Europe, is certainly different from other civilizations, including other Western ones. I’m afraid that without a common effort we will be lacking a European voice capable of influencing future developments, including our own.
Why is it so hard for the EU to express a common stand when it comes to foreign affairs? Today’s Europe is comparable to 1845 Italy, when the small States of the peninsula revelled in their prosperity but had no influence on the European milieu. Their destinies were not decided in Milan or in Florence but in Vienna, Paris and London. Today the EU is experiencing that same situation. Also great Germany is but a small State which has no power of influence alone.
Beijing, Moscow and Washington are the masters of our fate, not our national capitals.
Would a European common defence project benefit the EU? Armed forces are the tools of foreign policy. But without foreign policy this tool is useless.
ISIS is trapped between the interests of the Super-powers and those of their allies. Is it on its way to defeat? ISIS continues controlling parts of the territory in Syria and Iraq. It may no longer hit front-page news but it’s still active on the political scenario. It’s experiencing difficulties and it no longer represents a major reason for concern. However it should be said that ISIS is a symptom, not a disease. The disease consists in unsolved hostility between regional powers, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. If the disease is not treated there will be further symptoms. The political leaders of these three Countries must find a common ground, but I see no signs.
We already spoke about Putin. Could Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton change this lack of action? We shall see what the next US administration will decide. For sure, this is not an ideal situation.
