The watchword in Brussels is “orderly exit.” The heads of the institutions of the European Union and the political leaders of EU 27 Member States have been repeating it for months when speaking of the Brexit (i.e. British exit). The 28th Country, the United Kingdom, is already seen as a tenant living apart in the same home. After Theresa May called early general elections for June 8, in order to ensure large popular mandate ahead of the negotiations with the EU (in a Country stained by the blood of the victims of heinous terror attacks), the British government and the EU will cross political and diplomatic swords to define the details of the “divorce settlement”. For Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, “one day the British people will regret this decision.”
Why Brexit?
The decision to leave the “common home” – which the UK joined after a set of vicissitudes, in 1973 – is the result
Various isolationist and nationalistic drives that continued affecting British public opinion for the past 40 years.
Finally, on June 23 2016 the subjects of Queen Elisabeth were called to express their stand in a referendum. They voted to “leave” by a narrow margin (51,9% to 48,1%). “Leave” won the majority of votes in England and Wales, while every council in Scotland and Northern Ireland backed staying in the EU. The then Conservative Premier-in-office David Cameron, who called the referendum backing the remain campaign, stepped down soon after the results. Alarming reactions from the markets and heated internal political debates ensued, whereby Scotland and Northern Ireland were determined to reaffirm their interests linked to Community integration. The Prime Minister’s office was thus assumed by Theresa May, who immediately promised she would respect the voters’ decision and undertake the negotiations by March 2017.
When?
On March 29 2017 European Council President Donald Tusk received the notification letter invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, envisaging exit from the Union, handed by the British ambassador to the EU. It is the first time in the 60-year-long history of the European Community (celebrated in Rome just a few days earlier, on March 25) that a State leaves the EU. In a statement at the House of Commons, Theresa May said: “In accordance with the wishes of the British people the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union. This is an historic moment, from which there can be no turning back.” She went on: “Today more than ever the world needs Europe’s liberal and democratic values shared by the United Kingdom.” The Prime Minister’s message is: “we are not leaving Europe, we are leaving the EU.” Exactly a month later, on April 29, the 27 convened in Brussels for a special Council. On that occasion the European Council (representing heads of Government and State) acknowledged Britain’s decision and defined the fixed points of the negotiations, due to begin after the general elections in the United Kingdom, announced for June 8.
The timeframe was clear: not more than two years to negotiate the terms of London’s departure.
But in all likelihood the process will be completed by Spring 2019, before the elections for the renewal of the European Parliament, scheduled to take place in May 2019.
How?
The EU meeting of April 29 adopted a lengthy document (6 chapters, 28 points) establishing the guidelines and goals of the negotiation. “European integration has brought peace and prosperity to Europe and allowed for an unprecedented level and scope of cooperation on matters of common interest in a rapidly changing world”, the document states. “Therefore, the Union’s overall objective in these negotiations – for the Brexit – will be to preserve its interests, those of its citizens, its businesses and its Member States.” The document goes on: “The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the Union creates significant uncertainties that have the potential to cause disruption, in particular in the United Kingdom but also, to a lesser extent, in other Member States.”
Four major knots needing to be untangled:
The rights of the respective citizens (3 million European citizens currently living and working in the UK, almost a million British citizens living and working in Europe); whether the United Kingdom will remain in the single market (in order to remain London will need to accept its rules in full, namely, the so-called “four freedoms”); financial settlement (the UK pays into the EU Budget framework which ends in 2020 a sum yet to be defined, ranging from 60 to 100 bn Euro). Last but not least, there is need for a peaceful establishment of relations between South and Northern Ireland, without restoring borders, customs, and tearing divisions.
